Tuesday, March 23, 2010

A Tale of Six Quarterbacks

Tired of speculation and draft punditry? How about some stats? Either way, you'll probably find the following interesting.


The glittering genius of the Cold, Hard Football Facts is that we admire only numbers and productivity.
We put little stock in a player’s pedigree. And we put even less stock in the “pundits” and their outdated weapon of choice, the opinion, which bounces off the steely armor of our analysis so helplessly, like nothing but little pebbles of pigskin overwhelmed by our M1A1 Abrams tank of truth.
So it is today that we dive into one of the biggest stories of the 2010 NFL draft by looking at the college productivity of six legendary quarterbacks here in the modern pass-happy era.
Six Big-Name College Quarterbacks
Player
Comp.
Att.
Pct.
Yards
YPA
TD
INT
Rating*
Player A
851
1,354
62.85
11,201
8.27
90
33
100.93
Player B
825
1,232
66.96
8,772
7.12
76
37
95.60
Player C
841
1,383
60.81
10,286
7.44
84
36
93.15
Player D
493
797
61.86
6,625
8.31
52
21
99.04
Player E
564
986
57.20
7,731
7.84
51
33
85.72
Player F
661
985
67.11
9,286
9.43
88
15
120.72
* Using the NFL formula for passer rating, not the NCAA formula
The numbers aren't even close. One player dominates. One player leaps screaming off the list, like Horshack on "Welcome Back Kotter" when he knew the answer to a question: “Pick me! Pick me! Pick me!”
That dominant individual, of course, is Player F. This quarterback:
  • Was the most accurate of any of these six passers.
  • Dominated the average per attempt category – our favorite number – by better than 1 yard per attempt over the No. 2 player on the list.
  • Boasts a passer rating so sky high it defies description, nearly 20 full points better than the No. 2 player on the list.
Elsewhere, Player F was No. 2 in total TD passes – but easily No. 1 in TD pass percentage. Player F threw a TD on 8.9 percent of his pass attempts – easily outpacing Player A, who threw a touchdown on 6.6 percent of his pass attempts.
Finally, Player F protected the ball much better than any of the other quarterbacks on this list. Player F threw an interception on just 1.52 percent of attempts – easily outpacing Player C, who threw an interception on 2.60 percent of attempts. And you know what we've always told you: quarterbacks who throw picks lose games. Quarterbacks who don't throw picks win games.


We bet you can guess who Player F is, but who are the other five? That's what might surprise you. Click here for the answers.


Hat tip: Deann


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